2012 World Uncertainty

On the second half of last year was a mischievous and most miserable year where the world is stuck with full of ambiguity that triggering a slowdown in the develop countries especially America and Europe.

The mounting of Europe debt, the downgrading of American credit rating by S&P, the standstill of U.S unemployment at 9%, the wide spread of European sovereign debt crisis to Spain, Italy and Greek, the noises flying around Spain due to the the soaring of unemployment rate to around 25%, Greek citizen going on strike after government announce to take austerity measure to curb the debt level, and so on. So the last year main topic was due to the disastrous and the failure of Europe and America to control their mounting debt. When you read any news, the main topic is only DEBT and the DUEDEAD of the debt. 

For the year of 2012, i am quite bearish for the U.S economy and i am expecting the U.S economy and most of the U.S big corporation like, Goldman Sachs and Citibank Group to face a major stall speed and a decline in their earnings. Nonetheless, U.S retail sales did went up, and unemployment did came down too. Is this a good sign? First and foremost, the U.S unemployment did came down because less people are looking for jobs and people that are applying for jobs quite searching. Thus, is this a good sign that the U.S economy is recovering? 

Hence, are we in the bear or bull run? Is the bear taking over the bull? With all the scary news still coming out of Europe, chronic high unemployment, sovereign credit downgrades everywhere, economic slowing down in China, the likelihood of recession in Europe, speculation stating China may face hard landing and escalating conflict over Iran, the bears can easily make the argument that this is a market top and lower prices lie ahead. Conversely, some pundits argue that this year will be another bull run. Why? They point out strong technical indicators, improving economic reports at home (unemployment dropping, manufacturing increasing, retail sales soaring) and so this argue that the bull market is intact. 

So, what should be the pick for Malaysian stock market? The next post i will be writing on what will i be focusing for the year 2012. Try studying between the bear and the bull market as market timing is one of the crucial steps that investors should look for. With right market timing, you will have bigger Ang Pao!!!