Why China will dictate the America?

In the past few years, many pundits have been arguing that china will be taking over the America and renminbi will be trade as international currency around the globe. After analysing some data, true enough that 10 years down the road, if the Americans are still not growing, China might take over the U.S. Why?

First and foremost, comparatively, China Gdp is growing at a much faster pace for the pass few years than the U.S. China debt to GDP is much lower and China reserve is around 3.2 trillion. What about U.S? U.S growth has came to a halt and stagnant after the global financial crisis in 2008. Many parts of the US economy were imploding or had ceased to function. The U.S central bank has been pumping money like there is no tomorrow. But the question that ponders one's m is that where does the money come from? Interestingly, Washington has lose out of cash and had been borrowing money from China.

Secondly, China tax revenue is increasing nearly 30% for the pas few years while the U.S tax revenue is plummeting due to sluggish economy. China has 810 million workers and US has only 160 million workers. Which is a tremendously 5 times more than U.S and the unemployment in China is only 3%. On the other hand, U.S unemployment is at the all time high of 8.6% that is around 14 millions people that is unemployed.

In the case of U.S, gasoline prices have skyrocketed, heating oil futures are escalating, milk and cheese prices are up around 18% and 15% respectively. All this are causing the decline in the dollar's buying power. As a result, IMF, UN are also calling for the end of the dollar's reign as the world reserve currency. For instance, Caterpillar and Macdonald's recently finance their mainland china projects directly via yuan bond offerings instead of the U.S dollars. Besides, Apple computer is even accepting itunes payments in yuan. Therefore, why is U.S claiming the China authority to unpegged the yuan and their claiming the yuan is undervalued which causes the demand for china product to be more attractive. But, the average U,S worker earns 6.5 times more than his or her chinese counterpart. These skyhigh labour costs are cooked into every product in America. Thus, a simple term can make one's understand that why product in America is much more expensive comparatively to China.

However, the only reason i can think of why the U.S is demanding the Yuan to appreciate their value is because by raising the value of the chinese yuan, U.S and china will automatically crush the value of the U.S dollar. So the U.S can repay its otherwise unpayable debts with cheaper value. U.S debt which is standing at 15 Trillion while Europe debt is standing at a high of 5.8 Trillion. U.S debt is 5 times more than the Europe debt. In fact, U.S only hope of avoiding default is to destroy the value of its own currency. In addition, the weaker dollar and stronger chinese yuan, China will be able to buy up even more of U.S debt and protect the massive investment it has already made in America by helping U.S to avoid default.

Malton

Malton Overview

Malton Berhad is an investment holding company which operate in property development, construction and project management segment. Malton is also launching few property development projects.

Projects coming up
1) Ukay Springs, Ampang semi-detached and bungalow houses
2) Sungai long mixed development
3) Sungai Buloh commercial development
4) Nova Saujana serviced apartments
5) V Square at Petaling jaya city center phase 2 (expect to complete in june 2012)
6) Amaya Maluri at Kuala Lumpur ( Expect to be completed by end of 2012)

Fundamental Analysis
MARKET CAP = RM273.86MILLION
SHARE OUTSTANDING = 418.10
PAR VALUE = 1.00
CURRENT SHARE PRICE = 0.65
ROE = 14%
ROI = 11%
PROFIT MARGIN = 15.6%
AVERAGE EARNING GROWTH RATE = 45%
QUICK RATIO = 2.5
CURRENT RATIO = 2.7
DEBT TO EQUITY = 33.1%
CURRENT EV/EBITDA = 5.27
NTA = 1.40
DIVIDEND YIELD = 3%
CASH PER SHARE = 0.76

Comment on fundamental view
Base on fundamental view, i will reckon or recommend investor to buy and hold this share at the price of 0.67. Fundamentally, this company has a strong cash holding and they have increase around 200% to 0.76 cash per share. With this amount of cash position, the company will be able to pay out more dividend or clear some of their debt in bad times. Besides, the company earning have been growing since the past 5 years and i am expecting for the year 2012, the company will remain resilient with the uncertainty around the globe.However, the management remain positive on the earnings of the company as there are few more properties that will be completing this year.

Intrinsic value of Malton
However, for property company, i prefer to take a look at their asset they have and the upcoming projects.
With their NTA o 1.40 its 50% discount base on their share price, therefore, Malton is the only company that are trading way below their NTA. Moreover, their historical PE is around 7. With their earning remain around 20 sen per share, their share price should be 1.40 per share and this is exact the same as their NTA. Therefore, I am predicting a 20% discount and giving my target price for malton a 1.20 per share. Although their earning may be looking down, but for property company, their value is on the property they have and  the upcoming projects inclusive the completion of some projects. On the other hand, It is also estimated that their total GDV of 1185m which is three times more than their enterprise value. After deducting their debt that will be incur for all the projects, it is estimated that their gdv will be around 680m and with a discount rate of 5%, it will come to a 537m base on their GDV. On per share price basis, their share price suppose to be approximately 1.38 per share.


Technical view
Technically, i will recommend investor to accumulate at 0.65 to 0.67. Support will be 0.65 and resistance will be 0.70 follow with a strong resistance of 0.76. Lastly, buy at your own risk and invest wisely! happy investing!

How do i screen stocks?

Many of investors finding difficulties in screening stocks.
Here are some of my method when i start screening for good stocks.

1) Look at the trend that the markets are trending before jumping into any shares. Eg : Decline in rubber prices, we can conclude that rubber glove manufacture will benefit while the rubber plantation companies will be losing out.

2) After looking for trend, start looking for companies that will benefit the most. In other words, start looking for companies that are undervalue or trading below their intrinsic value.

3) After searching for companies by looking at their future prospect, an investors should realize that investors should look at the liquidity of the shares. Preferably, beta with more than 1.20. The purpose of this is that although the shares is trading below their intrinsic value, somehow when there is no liquidity in the shares, there bound to have no volume and the share price will be trading at the same range and investors money will get stuck there.

4) What to look for when there is so many companies. Study the company.

• Is the company conservatively financed? A lack of long term debt is seen as a good indication that a company has a durable competitive advantage. Ideally, long term deb burden less than 4x net earnings.
• Look for business that consistently earn a high rate of return on shareholders' equity. A consistent returns on equity with 15% or higher, provide a good indication that management can profitably employ retained earnings. 
• Look for continuously positive cash flow
• Sustainable growth for the past few years and be sure that their earnings are consistent. 

5) If possible, try to look for fund managers favourite shares. This is because, there will be more liquidity and volume in the shares that make the share price to move up and down in a faster pace.

6) Try not to jump into any shares although you ought to think that the share price is undervalue. Why? Share markets will not rise forever neither will it tumble forever. What i am trying to convey to fellow investors is that don't buy any shares during the peak unless you are a speculator or trader. For value investing, timing is very crucial.

7) Lastly, try learning some basic in technical analysis to time when is the right time to buy the shares after analysing the best shares that caught your mind.

Happy investing!
Daniel

My Pick for 2012

Despite all the gloomy economic news nowadays, many pundits are still hanging around near Starbucks arguing among each other and confronting one another about who will predict the right timing for the economy to fall into recession. Instead of sitting down at kopitiam drinking RM1.50 coffee for poor people like me, why not try figuring out what will be best pick on Malaysian shares for 2012?

What will be my pick for Malaysia shares in 2012?

First, for the 1st half of 2012 i will like to remind fellow investors to beware of election. If election is approaching, meaning it is asking you to "Leave the Market before you get hit!!". Prior to election, i will advise fellow investor not to take risk and stay sideline during election time.

However, besides election, what are the stocks that i will be eyeing for? For the 1st half of 2012, i will stay Bullish on CPO price and predicting CPO price will remain at the range of 2900 to 3200. Thus, i am still looking for plantation shares during the first half of 2012. Plantations share with good valuations that i am eyeing are (Gnealy TP 7.20, Hsplant TP 3.30, Kmloong TP 2.70, Thplant TP 2.80 and Tdm TP 4.10) 

Secondly, the sector that investors should scrutinize at is rubber sector. Rubber price has plunge from around RM11/KG to RM7/KG. This will bring beneficial to the rubber glove companies. The top pick for rubber glove companies are (Hartelaga TP 7.50 and Supermaxx TP 4.30)

Thirdly, i will remain defensive on consumer sector and will be scrutinizing on companies that pay out high dividend yield. Please take a look at (Bjfood TP 1.40, Yhs TP 2.40, Carlsberg TP 9.00, and Ajinamoto TP 4.20) Most of this shares that i am looking are paying out high dividend. Currently, i am monitoring closely on Yhs and Bjfood. Will write more on this companies once the timing is right. Take a look at Yhs, as they have change management and i can foresee that the changes of management did took effect on their earnings outcome. However, it is still too risky to make a decision yet. Thus, if Yhs continue to consolidate at 2.00, it may be a buy call. On the other hand, for Bjfood, they are expanding their business to Indonesia and China, i am anticipating that their business will bring a positive earning outcome for the company as i like Bjfood healthy balance sheet.

Lastly, i will be looking more on defensive and more liquidity shares. These are (Kpj TP 5.10, Oriental TP 5.50, Jtinter TP 7.30, Tenaga TP 6.50, Mediac TP 1.30, Parkson TP of 6.10, Genm TP 4.10 and Dialog 2.70). For more defensive purpose i prefer Oriental as their balance sheet is still hoarding with a vast amount of cash. For Dialog, oil price is still remaining at a high end level and it is one of the major oil company that having strong balance sheet. However, for Genting Malysia, their expanding in New york and UK. This may have an impact on their earnings.

Having a rough idea on what will i be looking at for 2012? Remember, once you got your ang pao, don't hide it under the bed! It won't turn your bed into gold!! Take it out and invest and generate more income!! But please do be more cautious for this year and any of you do have issue or problem, please do email or leave comment! Happy investing!!=)

2012 World Uncertainty

On the second half of last year was a mischievous and most miserable year where the world is stuck with full of ambiguity that triggering a slowdown in the develop countries especially America and Europe.

The mounting of Europe debt, the downgrading of American credit rating by S&P, the standstill of U.S unemployment at 9%, the wide spread of European sovereign debt crisis to Spain, Italy and Greek, the noises flying around Spain due to the the soaring of unemployment rate to around 25%, Greek citizen going on strike after government announce to take austerity measure to curb the debt level, and so on. So the last year main topic was due to the disastrous and the failure of Europe and America to control their mounting debt. When you read any news, the main topic is only DEBT and the DUEDEAD of the debt. 

For the year of 2012, i am quite bearish for the U.S economy and i am expecting the U.S economy and most of the U.S big corporation like, Goldman Sachs and Citibank Group to face a major stall speed and a decline in their earnings. Nonetheless, U.S retail sales did went up, and unemployment did came down too. Is this a good sign? First and foremost, the U.S unemployment did came down because less people are looking for jobs and people that are applying for jobs quite searching. Thus, is this a good sign that the U.S economy is recovering? 

Hence, are we in the bear or bull run? Is the bear taking over the bull? With all the scary news still coming out of Europe, chronic high unemployment, sovereign credit downgrades everywhere, economic slowing down in China, the likelihood of recession in Europe, speculation stating China may face hard landing and escalating conflict over Iran, the bears can easily make the argument that this is a market top and lower prices lie ahead. Conversely, some pundits argue that this year will be another bull run. Why? They point out strong technical indicators, improving economic reports at home (unemployment dropping, manufacturing increasing, retail sales soaring) and so this argue that the bull market is intact. 

So, what should be the pick for Malaysian stock market? The next post i will be writing on what will i be focusing for the year 2012. Try studying between the bear and the bull market as market timing is one of the crucial steps that investors should look for. With right market timing, you will have bigger Ang Pao!!!

PARKSON

PARKSON OVERVIEW


Parkson Holdings berhad is a Malaysia-based investment holding company. The Company, along with its subsidiaries, is principally engaged in operations of the parkson brand department stores. The businesses are located in the Malaysia, Hongkong and also Vietnam. The Company has a chain of 85 Parkson department stores, with 35 in Malaysia, 44 in China and 6 in Vietnam. In July2011, it acquired Puncak Pelita Sdn Bhd. In November 2011, the Company announced that Tianjin Parkson Shopping Mall Co. Ltd acquired the land of a shopping complex located at the northeast corner of Nanmenwai Street and Shenyi Street, Heping District, Tianjin City, the People's republic of China, which consists of a five storey building with a land area of approximately 13,424.6 square meters and total gross floor area of about 45.022.15 square meters.

Fundamental Analysis
MARKET CAP = 6234 MIL
SHARE OUTSTANDING 1093.69MIL
CURRENT SHARE PRICE = 5.53
ROE = 15%
ROI  = 17%
5 YEAR AVERAGE EPS GROWTH RATE = 20%
AVERAGE PE   = 15
QUICK RATIO = 1.20
CURRENT RATIO = 1.34
DEBT TO EQUITY RATIO = 88.99
CURRENT EV/EBITDA = 10
PREDICT EV/EBITDA (BASE ON 6.30 F SHARE PRICE) = 9.60
P/BOOK VALUE = 2.04
DIVIDEND YIELD = 3%
CASH PER SHARE = 2.5 SEN PER SHARE
LAST YEAR EPS AS AT AT 2011 = 0.32 SEN

Comment on fundamental view
Fundamentally, Parkson did incur a vast amount of debt but in this case as an investor i wouldn't be worry as it is foreseen that the mounting of debts are used for expansion. As you can see during the preceding year, Parkson Holdings plans to expand its retail network in Indonesia from six outlets presently to 20 to 24 outlets by 2015. Likewise, Parkson Holdings cash per share increases by 23% to an amount of 2.7 billion which is 2.5 per share. With cash rich hoarding in Parkson balance sheet, i wouldn't be worry if any default payment happens on Parkson.

Intrinsic value for 5 years
Assuming that EPS growth rate for 5 years is 40% (Adjusted higher than average as assuming their expansion will take effect on their earnings)
EPS for 5th year = 0.47 per share
Average PE = 16
Forecast share price = RM7.52
Discounted value base of 4% = 0.822
Parkson Intrinsic Value = RM6.20 per share 

Comment :
Parkson Holdings has an impressive growth momentum. The downside risk will be slowdown in China's and Malaysia's consumer discretionary spending. However, i presume that estimated of 7 to 9 more stores to be open and this will continue to aid their earnings growth. Most impressively, Indonesians operations are beginning to rival the Vietnamese operations despite being relatively new. Although their dividend may not look appealing to certain investors, but what i would recommend is that it is more on a defensive play. As global ambiguity are circulating around the globe, i would standstill on investing more on defensive play. Thus i will remain Buy call at 5.50.

Technical view 
Share price is trading around 100 MA. 100 MA is crossing above 20 MA. I would advice investors to accumulate at a range of 5.40 to 5.55. Its more of a time to start accumulating this share. RSI remain around 50. Historically, when it slide slightly below 50, it will bounce back. Thus, i strongly recommend investors to start accumulating. For your info, please buy at your own risk. Happy investing!!!

HSPLANT

HSPLANT OVERVIEW


Hap Seng Plantations Holdings Berhad is a Malaysia-based investment holding company, which carries out marketing and trading activities for its subsidiaries. The company is engaged in cultivation of oil palm and processing of FFB carried out in Malaysia. As of December 31, 2010, the compayny covers plantation estates of 39,803 hectares are situated at three geographical areas. The first is a contiguous plot of land measuring approximately 36,354 hectares is situated between Lahad Datu and Sandakan; the second area, measuring approximately, 1,276 hectares, namely Ladang Kawa Estate is in Tawau and the third area, measuring approximately 2,173 hectares, is at kampung Natu, Kota Marudu. During the year ended December 31, 2010, the company produced 677,071 tons of FFB; 149,941 tons of palm oil and 33,409 tons palm kernal. The company is projected to produced more in the near future as demand from China and India still remain strong.

Fundatmental analysis
MARKET CAP = 2320.00MIL
SHARE OUTSTANDING= 800 MIL

ROE = 15% 

ROI   = 13%

5 YEAR EPS GROWTH RATE = 50%

AVERAGE PE = 10

QUICK RATIO  = 2
CURRENT EV/EBITDA = 9.00
PREDICT EV/EBITDA (BASE ON 3.30 PER SHARE) = 9.30
P/BOOK VALUE = 1.20

DEBT TO EQUITY RATIO = 31.25%

DIVIDEND YIELD = 6%

CASH PER SHARE = 0.15SEN

CURRENT EPS 3RD QUARTER = 24 SEN

Future share price value

With current CPO remain 3000 and above, and production of Hsplant remain stable and above average, predicting their next quarter eps will be around 8 sen. 

Future EPS for whole quarter = 0.24 +0.08 = 0.32

Average pe = 10

Future value = 3.20 (For 2012)

Intrinsic value for 5 years

Assuming that 5 years eps growth rate is around 50%.

EPS for the 5th year = 0.48 sen

Assuming average pe increase to 12 (as number of share holder increases) 

Forecase share price = 5.76

Assuming discounted value of 4.8% base on beta of 1.16 = 0.822

Hsplant intrinsic value = 4.70 (4 to 5 years time)


Comment:
Base on the 1h2012, i still remain positive of CPO at above 3000. The trend for 2012 will be looking for much profitable and growth prospect plantation company. The downside risk is that if CPO were to drop below 2800, this will affect most of the plantation company. However, Hsplant cash and equivalent are increasing tremendously from the previous year. This cash might be use to pay out to investor as dividend or shares buy back. Thus, i remain a strong buy call for Hsplant as their management and growth prospect in the next few years will be splendid. Overall, their balance sheet remain healthy, without any debt and as the world economy remain in a turmoil and ambiguous state, this share remain a defensive share and more of a long term escalating growth prospect.  

Technical view:
200 MA cut 50 MA. I would recommend investors to start accumulating now as it is the right timing to buy. In the short term, i foresee that the share price may consolidate at a range of 2.85 to 2.95 but in the mid to longer term, the share price may skyrocket to its intrinsic value. The volume has shows that there have been some accumulate at 2.80 to 2.85. Investors are still holding for longer term. I would strongly advice investors to accumulate at 2.80 to 2.90. For your info, please buy at your own risk. Just a two cent of advice. Happy investing!!!

WELCOME!!!

Hi, thank you for visiting my blog, as i am more of a value investors, but i do take technical analysis into account to predict the right timing to accumulate the shares. However, i make and recommend shares base on my view and please analyse carefully before buying into any shares. Besides, if you have any question or doubts or skepticism with my analysis, please do email or made some comment. I will appreciate that if you do.

Please do be more active in my blog. I would appreciate any comment, suggestion, or opinion. If any of you want me to analyse on any company that you are interested in, or any news that you want me to give you my two cent opinion, i would love to. Feel free to email me : danielsoh_92@hotmail.com or Vincentsoh_92@hotmail.com if you wish to ask anything or post in the comment. So if you can just scribble my comment or my blog, but make sure it is logical and related!! Hope to see feedback and comment!!