UPA TP

UPA Corporation Bhd. is principally engaged in investment holding and provision of management services. The Company operates in two segments: manufacturing, which includes manufacturing of paper-based products and plastic products, and machine trading which is engaged in selling, reconditioning and servicing of printing and printing related machines. The Other segment comprises operations related to the holding of properties and trading of plastic products.

Fundamental analysis
Par value = RM1
Share outstanding = 79.58m
Market capitalisation = 109.58m
Current share price = 1.36
Dividend = 0.08 sen
Dividend yield = 5.8%
Payout ratio = 53%
Cash from operating activities = consistent over 5 years
ROE = 9%
ROI   = 9%
ROA = 7%
Profit margin (average for 5 years ) = 14% (2012 result)
NTA = 2.30
Price to sales = 0.80
cash per share = 0.50 sen
Current ratio = 4
Beta = 0.6

Fundamental analysis
Fundamentally, Upa is strong comparatively to other company with the 3rd quarter result accumulative of 12 sen and assuming that the next coming quarter with an increase in 4 sen which result to a 16 sen and with an average pe of 10 the target price of 1.60. Not to mention half of the company share price are comprises with its cash after given out all the dividend they are still holding huge amount of cash. This huge amount of cash can be use to cover all its debt in the company and if not the company can use the cash for expansion of the business. Many investor overlook this company and might not realise its true value of this company. This company has potential to go up to its target price of 1.60 because they are fundamentally strong and businesses wise, they are 50% recession proof as they are manufacturing paper and plastic. During recession, all business or company still need paper for printing and shampoos company need plastic for their packaging. Thus, i will say this company is a safe play with huge potential value. Moreover, they have huge dividend of 5% coming up in few months time and with this increase in this quarter the company might pay out a 6% dividend which is much better than fixed deposit in the banks. recently, there has been some buy banks from the company as the company buy backs the share because the company knew that the shares are undervalue. Crucially, the NTA of the company is 2.30 and however the company now is trading only at 1.36. During market and economy bull, most company are now trading above their NTA but however, UPA is still under consolidating mode and trading way below its NTA. 

Technical analysis
Upa is now heading its uptrend after rebounding its 1.20 support level which is a good buy because i love buying uptrend shares and not downtrend. Its resistence if it can break 1.43 level. 50 day MA just pass through 200 day MA which might signal a buy signal. Bollinger band is heading upwards and once it squish upwards with consolidating prices around 1.30 to 1.40, its a good buy and target price of 1.60 to 1.70. If huge volume it might go upwards more. Macd just cut through signal line which might indicate a buy signal too.
Thus, i strongly recommend investor to accumulate but must be patient as its beta is only 0.6 thus volume might not be as high as other counter or investors are hoping to gain the 6% dividend, i will encourage u guys to park your money here instead of fixed deposit. By the way, please buy at your own risk as this is just my opinion and if the share plunge and u lose around 6 to 8% please cut losses and dont be greedy after getting dividend and the capital gain from increase in share price. Happy investing!!